Speed

Everyone pays attention to the direction things are going, but as an entrepreneur you need to pay very close attention to how fast they are moving.

Your startup has a shorter runway than any company you’ve ever worked for.

Maybe you are getting new leads – but how many per week?  Maybe your revenue is growing – but how fast?  Maybe the market is growing – but when will it become big enough?

As an entrepreneur, “eventually” is not an acceptable answer because you just don’t have that long.  Timing is often everything.

Why aren’t we already there?

Sometimes I lose focus and start to feel like I’m not getting anything done.  This frustration usually leads to the following dialogue:

  • What do I want?
    • The next business goal or objective.
  • How do I think I can get there?
    • Take a step back and look at the original business plan.
  • Why am I not already there?
    • What is preventing me from reaching that objective now.

I think the last question is critical to constantly consider.  It’s so easy to be satisfied with the “we’re making progress and eventually will get there” attitude – and sometimes you should be – but I think the CEO always needs to be prepared to push things harder and faster.

Ultimately, businesses are not simply judged on what they are able to accomplish – but on how quickly they accomplish it.  “Eventually” does not win races.  Business is always a race.

Asking this question identifies the bottleneck of the situation and (in my opinion) the CEO or program manager should always be focused on the bottleneck.

How to Decide What Business to Start

It’s a really, really tough question that I can’t hope to answer in a short essay.  Nonetheless, something I get asked about and think about a lot – so here goes.

Research

You need to know who the competitors are, what their products look like, who the customers are, what their buying processes are, what the industry experts say, how the macro economic environment is effecting everything, how your own solution would work (roughly), who your partners would be, etc.  This is serious research.  It’s important to write out a complete business plan (and have other people read it), interview people in the industry, recruit advisers, model out your financials, pitch to everyone that will listen, begin the product design, maybe even prototype a beta version.  I think good entrepreneurs can do this quickly so hustle through this like its your job.  You can’t make good decisions without good data – it’s the assumptions that will screw you later.

“Reasonably Viable”

All of this research needs to suggest that you have a “reasonably viable” startup opportunity.

It’s You vs. The World

Deciding something is reasonably viable requires both a solid business background (know the world) and a solid understanding of yourself (know yourself).  You’re basically trying to estimate how hard something will be to do and how good you will be at doing it.  For me, the process of looking at lots of different ideas, boiling them down to their core challenges and taking the first few steps at building those businesses was very helpful.  Continuously listening to, talking to, and reading about entrepreneurs also helped.  Finally, studying business case studies and theories (innovators dilemma) has been insightful.

Get Ready to Commit

I’m a pretty non-committal type of person myself so I can sympathize if you get hung up at this stage, but (as an ex-girlfriend used to say) you’ll never have anything significant if you can’t get past this point.  I think you need to:

  • be able to realistically visualize yourself going through the series of steps that ultimately lead to success
  • accept that it won’t be “easy money” (if it seems too easy you need to do more research)
  • accept that there is no such thing as “easy money” (lest you get distracted when the next idea comes along)

Nothing is Certain
At this point you may find yourself trying to dissect exactly HOW viable something is.  This is inevitable and worth thinking about, but at some stage it becomes pointless analysis-paralysis.  Even the most thorough research is inaccurate or will be inaccurate 6-months from now.  If your business plan is truly “reasonably viable” then this won’t matter.  Suppose it turns out the market is $1.5B instead of $2B?  It just doesn’t matter to your tiny little startup.

Trust Your Gut

If you have multiple, reasonably viable ideas or are trying to decide if you should commit to one in particular, I think it’s time to go with your instincts and ask yourself the following questions:

  • Do I like the industry?   -assuming you understand it
  • Does the industry move at the right pace for me?  -nuclear technology moves too slow, social media moves too fast
  • Do I enjoy the sorts of people in the industry?   -if you can’t stand engineers then don’t start a tech company
  • Do people in this industry value what I value/have to offer? -graphic artists probably should not start solar companies
  • Does the risk/reward match my own risk/reward style?  -some ideas have binary results (either $0, or $1B) and some scale more smoothly (maybe $100K, maybe $500K, maybe $1M, maybe $5M, maybe more?)
  • Do I feel like the product is a worthwhile product? -helps to feel like you’re making the world a better place – otherwise, porn is very profitable
  • Will I be able to play the role I want to play?  -there are no fresh MBA’s running venture funded cleantech startups

Doing what you love in life is super important and if you try to be too analytical about your options you’ll probably end up in a job you hate.  If you hate your job, you probably won’t stick with it through the tough times.  If you can’t stick with it through the tough times then your odds of success will be diminished.  And we don’t want that…

Good luck.

You Think You Want to Be an Entrepreneur?

I’m not negative about entrepreneurship.  I am not naive to the downside of working for a large company.  I am definitely not naive to the potential upside of starting your own business.  I mostly hang out with entrepreneurs.  I closely follow the blogs of several entrepreneurs/investors.  I’ve read pretty much every well-known book about entrepreneurship and innovation.  I think about this stuff ALL THE TIME…

That being said…

Entrepreneurship is not the point

I am very skeptical about entrepreneurship for entrepreneurship’s sake.  Remember, you don’t want to start A business.  You want to start THE RIGHT business.  And figuring out THE RIGHT business is not trivial.  You can’t force it.  You can’t say “I have a month to evaluate these different business ideas and then I will choose the right one”.  I’ve never seen this work.  Either one month turns into three, or you end up trying to start a few businesses simultaneously to “see which one takes off” (answer = none of them).  Entrepreneurship is no fun if you never win.  Finding the right opportunity is critical.

You’re not invincible

You’ve had success in the past.  You’ve done things that other people told you were not possible.  You set records, got elected, got the girl.  You got accepted to good schools and got promoted quickly at work…  So, naturally you feel super confident, like you can do anything if you put your mind to it.  The problem is – you’re entering a whole new league… You’re not competing against your high school classmates or your big company coworkers anymore.  You’re now going head to head with some of the best, most focused organizations there are.   They have resources and connections and are smart.  You won’t win in entrepreneurship out of pure effort and enthusiasm.  You need to make sure you fight the right fight.

Roller coaster

You must (try to) be prepared for the emotional roller coaster.  Right now you are super energized.  You hated your job.  You KNOW that you need to do your own thing.  You have tons of ideas and options.  You’re excited about the future and can envision the millions of dollars you will soon have.  It’s nothing but possibilities all around you.  You’re even still getting paid by your previous employer.  Life is good…. you pay the bill, you take cabs, you go shopping or on a vacation when you feel like it…

But life is going to get a lot more painful and uncomfortable.  It’s going to really, really suck when you work on something for several months and invest whatever money you have into it and then nobody buys it, or it doesn’t work, or you find a competitor is launching a product that even you think is superior.  It’s going to hurt when your friends and family are asking you “what the hell are you doing?”  and all you can talk about is the possibilities – and then 6-months later that’s still all you can talk about.  It’s not fun when you look into your bank account and realize you can’t pay rent and need to call in a favor from a friend or family member.  It’s stressful to have to second guess yourself constantly.  The point is – this is not all glory (I know you think you know, but you don’t know till you’re there).  To succeed, you need to be positioned so that you can push through these tough times.  Have enough money saved, have a low enough cost of living, have the people you count on for emotional support on board.  If you can’t push through the tough times then you just won’t make it.

Cynical-optimistic-realism

The honeymoon doesn’t last forever, so it’s important to stay grounded.  I’ve developed a sort of cynical-optimistic-realism over the last few years… I always believe in myself and I always believe that there are big opportunities that others have missed.  But, I’ve learned that most seemingly big opportunities end up being flawed when you really look into them.  I don’t believe there is any “easy money” out there – at least not any that is legally/ethically sound.  Being realistic means recognizing the challenges you’re facing and the odds that are against you.  It means relying on LOTS of factual information and questioning all assumptions.

I am having the time of my life with Proper Cloth and can’t imagine doing anything else.  I want to encourage entrepreneurship in everyone because I think ultimately it is worth it.  Just know what you’re getting into and be smart about it.

Five Tips for Aspiring Entrepreneurs

1.)    Find your passion.  Or at least an industry you’re genuinely interested in.   If you’re not sure, you need to put in time and try out new things.  Research an industry in detail, interview people in the space, maybe even work for your future competitor.   Make sure you enjoy being around the types of people involved and are excited by the challenges faced.  Liking what you do and who you work with will keep you motivated long enough to succeed.

2.)    Become really good at something.  Generalists make great management consultants and mid-level managers, but starting a company requires serving a particular customer need better than anyone else.  Become a real expert on that problem.

3.)    Don’t listen to Venture Capitalists.  Listen to customers.  VC’s are looking for the next “game changer” and they’ll be unimpressed with your “small” $100M opportunity.   That’s ok.  Not all startups are right for VC funding.  Listen to customers.  Find real problems they are facing now.  Verify that they represent a sizable market.  Find/design/arrange an innovative solution.  See if they will pay for it.

4.)    Focus on building a business, not raising capital. The time you spend obsessing over each letter in your pitch deck is time you take away from building a real business.  Success is not raising capital.  Success is creating a profitable, sustainable business.  If you can demonstrate the ability to do that, you’ll have plenty of interested investors.  Meanwhile, prepare to bootstrap.

5.)    Work your ass off.  Starting a company is not a 9-5 activity.  Get ready to work really hard – all the time.  And it’s about getting stuff done – not hanging out at the office – so learning how to stay focused and productive is critical.  Your hustle is your edge.

Response to Chris Anderson’s Economics of Giving it Away

You’ve probably already read Chris Anderson’s new article The Economics of Giving it Away.  A nice summary was put also put together by Dharmesh Shah at OnStartups.  

I generally agree with the direction that Chris Anderson sees things going.  The marginal cost of a web service is getting smaller.  The freemium business model makes sense and there are several successful examples of this.  And yes, without a doubt, consumers have become accustomed to not paying for web services.

But there’s something missing to this story that I just have to highlight (or someone please correct me):

Most of today’s free web services are subsidized -not by a few paying customers, but- by optimistic (delusional?) venture capital and corporate investors.  

It seems that in just the last few years, there has been hundreds of millions (billions?) of dollars invested in web services that either have no business model or planned to rely on advertising alone.

With millions of dollars, startups like Twitter, Pandora, Digg and Facebook have created some really compelling products that have attracted millions of users.  These are the darlings of the internet that experts point to as examples of success.

But, NONE of them are profitable today.  Fueled by the optimism of their investors and the bubble network of bloggers/users/experts, these companies are able to continue raising money to support their free services.  As subsidized startup competes against subsidized startup, prices continue to fall, advertising inventory continues to increase, millions of dollars of investment are lost and consumer expectations for “free” increase.

At some point, internet startups are going to be forced to stand on their own feet.  When that time comes they will have to scale down their teams and optimize their pricing.  I wonder how many are going to realize that they’ve spent $50M building a company that can’t generate more than $1M/year in profit, or $5M building a company that can barely support a single founder?

Free is just NOT a sustainable business model.

Seth Godin – Tribes – Highlights

I liked the book Tribes by Seth Godin.  It’s short and sweet.  A lot of books these days are so long – as if the author had a target word count and was obligated to surround the few key insights with endless examples and explanations.  Seth has a way of getting right to the point.  Here are my favorite parts in the order they appeared in the book (I take no credit for these ideas, they are Seth’s insights):

Stability is an Illusion

The recent financial crisis, global warming and violence in Gaza/India/Georgia should have made this obvious, but it seems so many people still don’t get it.  In entrepreneurship, this is the justification for not starting so many companies.  There’s always an assumption that the past defines the future: “Google will always be the best search engine.”  “Apple will always have the best mp3 players.”  “Oil will always cost $25/gallon.”  “Oil will always cost $150/gallon.”  “Manufacturing in China is always cheaper.”  You shouldn’t take anything for granted.

We like factories, because we like the absence of responsibility

Yes, factories are efficient – that matters too.  But, the really boring factory jobs (“factory” defined broadly as any company that reliably produces a product or service with measurable output) are compelling to a lot of people.  They don’t require initiative or innovation.  They feel low risk.  They promise that if you do what you are told, you will get paid.  It’s comfortable and safe.  At least it feels that way until the factory gets shut down.  Then you have (as we have in Michigan now) hundreds of thousands of factory workers feeling the very fabric of their lives be ripped apart.

The “Bureau of Ideas” does not exist

There are lots of people with good ideas.  “Ordinary people can dream up remarkable stuff fairly easily.  What’s missing is the will to make the ideas happen.”  So many people I meet talk about their ideas but do nothing.  They think that if their idea is good enough, or if they tell the right person, they will automatically be rewarded with a prize for having such a good idea.  This just doesn’t happen.  There is no bureau to submit your idea.  There is no 10 point score for ideas where if you get a 10, you somehow profit.  You need to do something.  It is only in doing something that we find success.

Fear of criticism

Most of the time, we are more afraid of criticism or blame then we are of failure.  When you’re thinking about starting a company, you’re less worried about losing money or losing time and more concerned that you will look stupid.  I remember a talk by Jeff Bussgang at MIT where he was asked about starting a company without funding.  His advice to us entrepreneurs was to make sure our decisions were “objectively credible”.  I told that to my partner at the time and a week later he quit.  I’m not saying Jeff is wrong, but I think this fear of criticism and this desire to stay “objectively credible” will hold people back from doing remarkable things.

Think your way around fear

“You can talk over the fear, laying out a game plan that makes the fear obsolete… making it clear to yourself (and others) that the world is now demanding that we change. “  You need to talk yourself out of fear.  This is what an entrepreneurs business plan is all about.

Leadership is painful

If you’re not stressed out.  If every day is a good day.  If you’re always relaxed.  Then, you’re probably not leading.  Creation is painful.  There is stress and strife.  Important decisions need to be made without all the information.  “Leadership is uncomfortable.”

Religion and faith are two different things

I am not religious.  When I was younger I used to say that religious people are crazy because their beliefs are fundamentally irrational.  I’d explain that these people group together to reinforce their irrational beliefs.  However, I’ve come to believe that if you’re running a startup, it is also irrational to believe that you will be successful.  Most startups fail.  Your competitors have more resources than you.  I also noticed that I now love hanging out with other entrepreneurs – people just as crazy and irrational as I am.  We encourage each other.  “Don’t give up… you can do it.”  I then concluded that all people are actually crazy.  This craziness is faith.  I think faith is important to mental health and human life.  I am still not religious, but I definitely have faith.

React vs. Respond vs. Initiate

Reacting is what politicians do all the time.  It’s instinctive and dangerous.  Responding is better.  It means you think about what happened, you consider options and take action.  Big companies respond.  They have too much bureaucracy to simply react.  Board meetings and public relations committees usually provide reasonable responses.  But the best thing to do is initiate.  Initiators don’t wait for the disaster to occur or the opportunity to pass.  Initiators are real leaders. Startups initiate.  They see what others ignore and take action.  Startups are responded to. Microsoft has responded to Google.  Google has responded to Facebook.  Facebook has responded to Rock You.

Life is short

Too short to spend all year in a job you hate waiting for your two weeks of vacation.  If you’re not engaged, if you don’t have a sense of purpose, then do something else.  The fun jobs are the ones where you’re discovering new things, breaking new ground, innovating, changing the world.  If you’re putting together powerpoints that your boss never looks at you probably hate your job.

Wrong isn’t fatal

“The only thing that makes people and organizations great is their willingness to be not great along the way.  The desire to fail on the way to reaching a bigger goal is the untold secret of success”.  I believe in this whole heartedly.  It applies to so many things. There are so many stories of startups that realized their original idea was flawed, correct and then achieve success.  Being wrong is not the end of the world.  You don’t need to marry your first girlfriend.  You don’t need to stick to the same career your entire life.  It’s by trying things out that we learn what works and what doesn’t.  Being wrong is an opportunity to grow.  People that fail often, early on, but keep trying new things end up finding great success.  Richard Branson, Donald Trump, Tim Ferriss come to mind.

Understanding the trick is not the same as doing it

In business school, we studied leadership, finance, entrepreneurship.  It’s safe to say that most people with MBA’s understand how these things work.  Disruptive innovation is actually a pretty simple concept.  It’s a lot different to actually do it.  There are so many folks (associates at VC firms and consultants) that will tell you how to run your business.  They’ve studied it, they’ve seen it done before and they “understand” it.  They are enlightened.  “Manufacture in China to decrease costs.”  “Hire a great team.”  “Find a big partner.”  Sure, their advice can be useful.  But the key to success is not always knowing what to do.  The trick is doing it.  Execution is not trivial.

Forces for mediocrity

“There’s a myth that all you need to do is outline your vision and prove it’s right – then, quite suddenly, people will line up and support you.”  This was the fantasy of my business school years.  Come up with an idea.  Write the business plan.  Win a business plan competition.  Raise $5M in VC funding. Hire a top-notch team of industry experts.  Sit back and let them work out the details.  Customers come rushing to you for the obvious benefits your product provides.  You retire rich and successful. HA!

“Remarkable visions and genuine insight are always met with resistance.”  Especially in business school: you tell colleagues an idea and they will do their best to find the holes in it.  It’s what MBA’s are programmed to do.  “Is the market big enough?”  “Are you SURE your conversion rate will be 2%?”  “If this is such a good idea, why hasn’t anyone else done it?” “What about google?”  Yes, this is helpful – it challenges you to think things through.  But it also makes you wonder if starting your business would be “objectively credible”.  Many would be entrepreneurs either retreat to a job in banking or consulting “to get a few more years experience” or endlessly pitch VC’s with the hope of winning some validation for their idea.

Success before commitment

“If your organization requires success before commitment, it will never have either”.  Commitment needs to come first.  If you’re not willing to put $10K on your credit card to get things going, why would someone put $1M into your venture?  Good partnerships and successful VC investments don’t come until it’s clear that the startup is absolutely determined to find a way to be successful (with or without them).

Mass Customization and the Clothing Industry

“Mass customization has taken off in the computer and automotive industry.  Why not clothing?”

First of all, in a certain sense, it has.  From a consumer point of view, outfits are extremely customizable.  When we put together outfits we mix and match different articles of clothing in various combination’s to suit our needs for the day.  Outfits fundamentally have a modular architecture: shirts, pants, shoes, jackets, etc.  The components are interchangeable and we have millions of components to choose from. People often reference cars and computers as examples of mass customization being successful – but the internal components are not “custom” – it is just the combination/configuration that is unique.  In this sense, our outfits have always been “mass-customized”.

Historically, for a product to be mass customized, it requires a modular architecture in which the individual components can be produced cheaply.  The components can than be combined in different configurations to offer a mass customized solution.

Modular solutions are generally cheaper because more elements are mass produced, but performance is limited by the internal interfaces.  Fully integrated systems generally have higher performance (not limited by standardized internal interfaces, but cost more because the system is more expensive to produce.

For the most part, garments have not developed modular architectures – and for good reason.  It would be impossible to standardize the interfaces between different components of all evening gowns in a way that allowed for mass production of different components of the gown, while still providing the performance (style) demanded by customers.  The fun of fashion is often in how the different pieces come together – the interfaces themselves – and you can’t standardize fashion.

However, in some cases modularity and standardized interfaces is possible: Custom t-shirt companies separate the actual shirt from the graphic on the front.  The interface is standardized, so that they can combine any graphic with any size and color of shirt.  Custom dress shirt companies standardize the interfaces between a dress shirt’s collar, body and cuffs allowing for various combination’s in this manner.  This is partly made possible with T-shirts and dress shirts by the styles not changing as quickly as the rest of fashion.  Colors may change, but the fundamental architecture of the garment does not.  Quickly changing fashion trends may prevent this from occurring for other garments.

Increasing Importance of Style and Design in Technology Companies

What drives your company’s product development?  That is, in the day-day decisions when you’re considering trade-offs and shifting priorities – what drives your analysis?

In pure technology companies and research, product development should be driven by technology. When I was an engineer developing consumer satellite modems every decision was based on technology.  We only considered performance vs. cost.

More and more though, I think companies that focus only on technology are failing.  Technology is still important.  It doesn’t hurt if your product is faster, lighter or more accurate than your competitors.  But more and more technology is not enough.  In a lot of areas, technology has progressed to the point that customers receive little marginal benefit to the improved technology.

If you’re a digital camera user and you take pictures to post them on Facebook, you don’t really benefit if the camera goes from 10 mega-pixels to 12 mega-pixels.  You’re only going to share your pictures at VGA resolution anyways.  You also don’t care if the battery life increases from 24 hours to 28 hours because you only need the camera for a few hours at a time.

It’s when technology reaches these inflection points that companies with technology-driven culture find themselves disrupted by companies that driven by design.  Apple’s iPod did not win market share because it plays music better than the competitors.  It won because of its emphasis on design.

In general, good design can have the following effects:

  • Enable a customer to capture the value technology creates.
  • Makes a product emotionally desirable.
  • Using the product makes someone feel positive about themselves because they feel connected to something beautiful.
  • Makes a product easier to use, decreasing the users stress that they are doing something wrong and shortening the learning curve.

So to all the so-called technology companies out there.  Think critically about how critical your technology really is.  If major technology improvements produce minimal user benefits, your priorities need to shift.  Design should not be driven by technology.  Design should be driven by people – and people are your customers.

No Funding Until March

The writing is on the wall.  No startups will receive angel or series A funding before March 2009.

I know it’s not what we (entrepreneurs) want to hear.  We’re optimists.  We can visualize that term sheet coming next week.  We can each personally justify why our specific venture is more attractive than any of the others out there and why this rule doesn’t apply to us.  But it’s just not likely.  And this time, when I say not likely, I don’t mean it in the entrepreneurial “not likely – but we’re really smart so we can make it happen” sense.  I mean it’s just not going to happen.

Why?  Two reasons: Investors are scared and investors are in control.

(1) Investors are scared.  They’re scared about the economy which is suddenly, tragically, totally unreliable.  You’ve spent months building your business plan showing great statistics about how big your market is and how fast it’s growing.  But with the financial crisis, your market projections are either slightly-exaggerated or completely-ridiculous, and nobody knows which it is.  (So, you say that doesn’t matter?  Your company saves people money, so you can still succeed by taking market share from entrenched competitors?) Well, there’s also a less rationale fear at play with investors: the fear of being seen as careless, gullible, or naive by their investor peers.  This is nothing new.  It’s one of the reasons investors have always liked to share deals.  Just now it’s magnified and a tougher hurdle to clear.

(2) Investors are in control.  It’s well known that money isn’t getting thrown around like it used to and that means there’s less risk of losing a deal to someone else.  This means more time for due-diligence.  More time for feet dragging.  More time to let the entrepreneur test their business model on their own and give the investor a reason not to invest. Seriously, why decide today if you can get more information and decide tomorrow?  (Except for the fact that without funding some good businesses will die from starvation)

So, these two factors, combined with the fact that we’re approaching the holidays, where vacations and other distractions create further delays, provides the obvious conclusion.  Even if an investor really likes your deal today, even if you think you’re on the verge of a term sheet, they’re probably going to drag their feet till the election, leave town for thanksgiving, lose focus until Christmas, and then start fresh in 2009.  Typical due-diligence should cost you 2-3 months and then it’s March.

So, if you’re an entrepreneur shopping a business plan around, it’s time to think very seriously about supporting you and your team for the next five months.  Either find a way to start taking customers money, move in with your mom, or start looking for a job.

Now go buy a shirt and keep this entrepreneur in business.